vs Detroit Tigers · 01:40 AM · Pitchers: Carlos Rodón vs Casey Mize
Yankees have superior composite score (57 vs 49) with solid pitcher Rodón (3.50 ERA) facing Mize. Model shows 55.1% win probability with low 3.1% edge, fitting the pattern of low-edge favorites that have been winning at 58%.
vs Minnesota Twins · 02:40 AM · Pitchers: Justin Wrobleski vs Kendry Rojas
Dodgers have elite composite score (68 vs 52) with ace Wrobleski (2.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). At -166 ML, run line -1.5 provides better value. Model shows 62.7% win probability.
vs Colorado Rockies · 03:40 AM · Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs Sean Sullivan
Sonny Gray (3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) is an ace facing Sullivan who has 10.29 ERA in limited work. Gray's quality gives massive starter advantage despite Coors Field environment.
vs Los Angeles Angels · 04:38 AM · Pitchers: Shane Baz vs Ryan Johnson
Angels starter Ryan Johnson has catastrophic 12.83 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. Orioles have superior composite score (50 vs 42) and should capitalize on this extreme pitching mismatch at -156 ML, making run line better value.
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